AGP Executive Report

AI & Digital Policy: President Tokayev opened AI & Digital Bridge 2026 in Astana, stressing AI must complement human intelligence, with “responsible” rules only where citizens’ security and vital interests are at stake, plus an “AI Challenge” to push real industry use-cases. Data Center Valley: PM Bektenov says Kazakhstan is moving toward a large-scale AI rollout with constitutional digital rights protections, a Digital Nomad push (1,500+ IT applications from 30 countries), and Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz targeting up to 1 GW capacity. R&D Push: Kazakhstan plans three joint R&D centers in energy, AI for applied use, and digital data storage, partnering with Chinese universities and firms. Cybercrime Alert: The Prosecutor General warns of AI-driven phishing scams targeting parents ahead of Teacher’s Day, using clone shops and chatbots to steal payments. Business & Industry: Carlsberg Kazakhstan opened a $344M non-alcoholic beverage plant in Almaty region with up to 1B litres annual capacity and 230+ jobs, using more local inputs. Energy Connectivity: Siemens Energy and the Green Corridor Alliance signed an MoU to explore electricity transmission cooperation for the Trans-Caspian Green Energy Corridor.

Oman–Kazakhstan State Visit: Sultan Haitham bin Tarik is set to visit Astana on Oct 5-6 to expand economic, investment, cultural and scientific cooperation, after trade jumped in 1H 2026. AI Governance Push: President Tokayev backs the “Washington Model” for safe AI and wants Kazakhstan to draft concrete proposals for a possible UN-backed treaty, with a G20 presentation planned. AI & Digital Bridge Momentum: At AI & Digital Bridge 2026, the government outlined a full-stack AI ecosystem roadmap (computing, data centres, connectivity, satellite tech, startups and digital services) with ethical safeguards, while also rolling out AI in rural schools via a staged pilot. Digital Talent Inflow: Kazakhstan’s digital nomad program has attracted 1,500+ IT specialists from 30 countries, supporting the country’s digital economy buildout. Fintech Shift: A new fintech study says bank concentration is squeezing independent startups, pushing the next wave toward open banking, embedded finance and shared infrastructure. Energy & Infrastructure Reality Check: Kazakhstan’s Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz targets up to 1 GW, but faces scrutiny over power and water capacity. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with the UAE, signed a memorandum to study a new railway route through Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach seaports. Diplomatic & Business Ties: Kazakhstan’s new ambassador to Hungary began her mission, with both sides prioritizing trade, investment, transport links and upcoming high-level visits.

AI & Digital Policy: President Tokayev backed safe, responsible AI under a proposed “Washington model,” saying Kazakhstan will push concrete proposals for global AI governance at the G20. Education & AI Rollout: Tokayev met Kai-Fu Lee, who helped shape a plan to introduce AI into secondary education, starting with rural school pilots in September 2026 and scaling to hundreds by 2027. Startup Ecosystem: Astana Hub signed four partnership deals to boost cross-border startup and AI cooperation, including joint labs, mentorship, and commercialization support. Aviation & Trade Links: Air Astana will launch direct Almaty–Tokyo flights in late November, aiming to strengthen Kazakhstan’s role as a transport hub. Transport Infrastructure: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed a memorandum to study a new railway route through Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach seaports. Energy & Logistics: Trans-Caspian sea freight hit 4.5m metric tons in the first seven months of 2026, up 60% year-on-year, highlighting momentum for the Middle Corridor. Business & Investment: Kazakhstan formed a 2027–2029 state investment project portfolio worth 9.2tn tenge, while foreign direct investment inflows into oil and gas contracted in H1. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are set to launch a high-capacity trans-Caspian fiber-optic link within a month.

AI & Digital Policy: Kazakhstan is pushing a “responsible AI” agenda and a practical AI Challenge, while Central Asia’s B5+1 talks in Astana floated common rules for e-docs, digital IDs, data protection, cybersecurity and AI oversight, plus a regional ethics code and shared AI language datasets. Data Centers & Computing: The Data Center Valley push is drawing global interest, with Tokayev highlighting an AI ecosystem (Astana Hub, Alem.ai, Qazaq AI) and plans to build 5 GW for a regional AI computing hub. Trade & Connectivity: World Bank’s Middle Corridor “Next Stage” forum backs faster, more predictable Trans-Caspian logistics, aiming to cut transit times and improve border procedures and digital links. Energy & Commodities: OPEC+ is expected to keep November output targets steady, with Kazakhstan among core producers; USDA data also puts Kazakhstan among the world’s top wheat growers while farmers shift acreage toward oilseeds. Regional Deals: Denmark and Kazakhstan discussed deeper trade and investment, including Carlsberg’s major Almaty plant; Mongolia and Kazakhstan advanced cooperation on trade, oil supply and a western meat-processing project. Transport & Telecom: Transtelecom named a new CEO; Kazakhstan–Azerbaijan’s 400 Tbps Trans-Caspian fiber link was also in focus.

AI & Data Infrastructure: President Tokayev met NVIDIA leadership, backing the next phase of Ekibastuz’s Data Center Valley (about 300 MW, expandable to 1 GW) and stressing AI must be applied in priority sectors, with Qazaq AI Research University and an “AI+X” model to link research to industry. AI Governance & Youth: Tokayev said Kazakhstan has a legal base for digital transformation but must avoid overregulation; AI should serve humanity and not create new dividing lines, while youth should use AI with critical thinking. Media & Education Partnerships: Kazakhstan’s President’s TV and Radio Complex and Qatar’s Al Jazeera expanded educational cooperation, including proposals for a joint “Talent Lab” and a permanent Kazakhstan-focused content stream for Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan’s KazTrade will open a permanent trade hub in Ulaanbaatar to showcase Kazakh products; the Export Credit Agency is working with Mongolia’s bank on a $33m funding line for pilot deals (including railway gondola cars). Finance & Markets: Kazakhstan’s banking regulators plan large-scale cyber drills for major banks, while the sector’s assets near a record 75.6 trillion tenge. Energy & Industry: KazMunayGas divested from Phystech II and executed internal Kashagan asset restructuring; Eurasian Resources Group started bauxite extraction at the Taunsor deposit. Regional Connectivity: The Middle Corridor’s next-stage push continues, with a World Bank forum in Georgia highlighting reforms and faster borders as key to boosting corridor trade and growth.

Digital Cooperation: Kazakhstan hosted a C5+1 digital innovation conference in Astana, with US and Central Asian officials and major tech firms discussing AI, digital security and tech governance. Middle Corridor Push: A World Bank report says upgrading the Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor could more than triple trade volumes, cut travel times and add 2m jobs by 2040, with Kazakhstan among key beneficiaries. Rail Connectivity: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE agreed to explore the CASA railway corridor to Pakistan’s seaports, with a joint working group to assess technical and financial steps. Kazakhstan–Germany Deal Flow: President Tokayev used a Munich forum to propose deeper Bavaria ties in advanced manufacturing, critical materials, microelectronics and logistics, including a semiconductor partnership program and joint industrial hubs along the Middle Corridor. Agriculture Trade: Kazakhstan and Germany agreed to expand agricultural cooperation as bilateral trade rose 23% in 2025 and 8.8% in early 2026, with talks on higher-value projects and possible EU horsemeat exports. Air Links: Air Astana opened bookings for Almaty–Langkawi flights from Dec. 25 and plans Astana–Bangkok direct service from Dec. 11. Banking Customer Service: Bank RBK won top-three awards in Kazakhstan’s customer experience study, including first place for staff empathy and engagement. Regional Security Talks: Russia’s “Moscow Format” on Afghanistan is set for Oct. 5, with Kazakhstan among expected participants. Transport & Logistics Investment: Rhenus plans 14 terminals along the Middle Corridor and cooperation on Aktau port development.

Kazakhstan–Germany Industrial Push: President Tokayev’s Munich meetings with Siemens, Linde and Aurubis focused on industrial digitalization, energy modernization and deeper metal processing, including a Siemens–Qarmet equipment upgrade and Linde plans for up to $500m (Temirtau air separation unit). Critical Minerals & Semiconductors: Tokayev proposed a Bavaria “chips” partnership and joint logistics/industrial hubs along the Trans-Caspian route, pitching “Made in Kazakhstan” with German/Bavarian technology and quality. Transport & Trade Corridors: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU to study the CASA railway corridor, while Tokayev said Middle Corridor cargo volumes rose 22% in the first eight months of 2026. Tourism & Investment: Astana plans a 10,000 sq m indoor amusement park and reported 830,000 visitors in H1 2026 (+12% y/y). Digital Economy: Kazakhstan’s planned ITU Acceleration Centre aims to boost digital innovation and regional CIS cooperation. Regional Security Cooperation: Russia and five CIS states agreed to exchange information on terrorism and extremism, including Kazakhstan. Aviation & Business: Air Astana opened bookings for Almaty–Langkawi flights (seasonal from Dec 25). Humanitarian Recognition: Kazakhstan is represented for the first time on the 2027 Zayed Award judging committee.

Nuclear & Energy: Rosatom says it is offering Armenia a 1 GW nuclear plant using its VVER-1000 design, with a second unit possible later. Water & Agriculture: Kazakhstan’s Turkistan region will host a water-management training school for farmers, supported via an EDB grant, with pilot sites planned before scaling nationwide. Rail & Logistics: Tokayev in Berlin praised Deutsche Bahn’s role in Kazakhstan’s rail modernization; Kazakhstan Railways also placed grain export flows under special operational control, while authorities uncovered a grain scheme worth 11 billion tenge. Real Economy & Finance: Construction firms face rising credit pressures as debt service costs climb; a Zhetysu construction company reported revenue doubling in 2025. Mining & Commodities: AltynGold posted strong H1 results and plans to expand ore processing; Kazakhstan modeled three crude price scenarios for 2027. FX & Banking: The dollar slipped below 440 tenge on the KASE; the Deposit Insurance Fund raised term-deposit rates for foreign-currency savers from Oct 1, and household term deposits grew. Kazakhstan–Germany Push: Tokayev’s Berlin agenda includes a proposed investment and financial platform, a joint declaration on critical minerals/energy/transport, and new cooperation talks with major German business groups. Legal/Enforcement: Kazakhstan resumed efforts to collect a 2.3 trillion tenge Kashagan fine from the NCOC consortium.

Kazakhstan–Germany Deal-Making: President Tokayev met German President Steinmeier in Berlin and the two signed a joint declaration backing deeper cooperation in trade, investment, energy, transport, digitalization and education; Tokayev said bilateral trade hit $4.5bn in 2025 (+13.4% YoY) and discussed industrial expansion, critical minerals and logistics. Rail & Middle Corridor Push: Tokayev praised Deutsche Bahn’s role in rail modernization and discussed container freight and Trans-Caspian logistics with DB Cargo Eurasia and Rhenus, including multimodal hub plans at Aktau. Industrial Projects: Talks with German firms included localization and supply-chain integration; a joint metal processing project was flagged as a priority. Digital & Cybersecurity Funding: The US allocated $5m for Central Asia cybersecurity and digital tech via C5+1 in Astana, focusing on training, incident response and protection of critical infrastructure. Credit Outlook: Moody’s maintained Kazakhstan’s Baa1 rating with a stable outlook, citing fiscal buffers and non-oil growth drivers. Diplomatic Trade Link: Kazakhstan and Malawi established diplomatic ties, with wheat exports to Malawi discussed. Energy Policy Watch: The EU signaled it may delay activation of methane import rules, affecting timing for oil and gas suppliers.

Kazakhstan–China Industrial Push: President Tokayev says Astana and Beijing must move beyond raw-material trade toward integrated production chains and deeper tech/industrial ecosystems, with momentum building around joint ventures in energy, digitalisation and finance. Middle Corridor Logistics: New corridors and upgraded roads/terminals are turning transit into value-added trade, while Caspian transport faces rising risks from military tension, sanctions and water-level drops. Power & Finance: Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company plans to pay 22.367bn tenge in dividends for H1 2026. Banking Watch: Second-tier bank profits fell 14.9% y/y to 1.4tn tenge (Jan–Jul), even as term deposits rose 20% y/y to 26.8tn tenge, with Bank RBK leading growth. Agriculture: Harvest is 83% complete (13.5m ha) with grain yields averaging 14.7 c/ha; Kazakhstan also targets record oilseed output above 5m tons and is preparing 2027 with early financing and deep grain processing projects. Industry & Mining: Bakerton’s Petropavlovsk confectionery plant starts with 37bn tenge capex; Kazakhstan weighs new copper smelters (600k t cathode capacity) and advances rare-earth processing with French support. Trade & FX: US dollar trades around 441 tenge on the Kazakhstan stock exchange; trade with Turkey rose to $4.7bn (Jan–Jul). Cyber & Digital: Astana hosts KazHackStan on cyber resilience and fraud prevention, while Kazakhstan–Germany eyes a water innovation hub. Policy: Kazakhstan proposes expanding permanent residence eligibility for foreign specialists from 51 to 174 professions.

Kazakhstan–Germany Deal Push: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Germany for talks with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with meetings planned with German firms, banks, universities and research institutes, plus business and tech forums in Berlin and Munich. Digital Integration Agenda: Kazakhstan is set to deepen Central Asia’s digital cooperation under the B5+1 business agenda, with entrepreneurs pushing proposals for regional IT and coordinated AI policy. Starlink Goes Mobile: Starlink Mobile launched in Kazakhstan via Beeline, enabling satellite-to-phone connectivity for compatible Android devices when cellular coverage fails, starting with messaging and basic internet. Trade & Logistics Blueprint: The World Bank proposes an “asset-light” joint logistics operator for the Middle Corridor to improve service levels and cut institutional barriers across Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Türkiye. Oil & Gas Industry Calendar: Azerbaijan will take part in KIOGE 2026 in Almaty (Sept 30–Oct 2), with a conference focused on energy projects, AI in oil & gas, export logistics and digital transformation. Aviation Safety Check: Kazakhstan’s aviation oversight is under review by the FAA for ICAO compliance; an FAA team assessed regulators and visited Air Astana, with next steps tied to potential Category 1 status. Energy Price Pressure: Petrol prices rose across Kazakhstan, while the tenge’s recent recovery against the dollar is being questioned as possibly temporary.

Offshore RMB Access: Hong Kong is expanding offshore renminbi products and listings, a move that could open wider yuan-based financing and investor access for Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Energy Reliability: Southern Kazakhstan faced a major blackout after a 1,516 MW generation outage in Uzbekistan; the grid operator says the incident triggered widespread interruptions. Fuel Costs: Petrol prices rose again, with AI-92 crossing 250 tenge per litre. Retail Banking Flows: Household bank deposits grew by 2.42 trillion tenge since the start of the year, with tenge term deposits leading. Defense Overhaul: President Tokayev replaced the defense minister and ordered a broad Defense Ministry inspection after 14 servicemen died in Caspian Sea exercises. Industrial & Tech Push: Kazakhstan plans to host AI & Digital Bridge in Astana (Oct 1-3) and is expanding domestic pharma manufacturing; Tokayev also backed new robotics and wind projects with Chinese partners. Trade & Macro: Exports rose 16% in Jan–Jul to $50.9bn, driven by higher oil and metal prices, widening the trade surplus. Crypto Power Policy: Kazakhstan is moving to let crypto miners use excess oil-field gas for electricity, aiming to reshape the sector around flare-gas power.

Defense Audit & Leadership Change: Kazakhstan’s Supreme Audit Chamber has launched a state audit of the Defence Ministry’s budget spending and support for military units, following President Tokayev’s order; the probe is due to deliver initial findings within a week, as Tokayev also dismissed Defence Minister Dauren Kossanov and appointed Aidos Myrzakhmetov amid the Caspian Sea training deaths. Caspian Sea Tragedy: A farewell ceremony was held in Mangystau for servicemen who died after 17 were swept out to sea during exercises off the coast; families are receiving state social and financial assistance. Education & International Ties: Kazakhstan is moving to revive higher-education cooperation with Malaysia via student mobility, research links, and potential Malaysian branch campuses. Central Asia-US Trade Push: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit Samarkand in mid-October for C5+1 talks, backed by a delegation of 100+ American companies aimed at turning diplomacy into investment. Digital & Finance Expansion: VEON and Square Group received Bangladesh Bank approval for a digital bank licence, with VEON citing its existing customer base across Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Global Business/Transport: MSC Group entered the Kazakh market, while Kazakhstan and Switzerland agreed a framework for more passenger flights. Higher-Profile Governance: Kazakh businessman Timur Turlov was elected FIDE president, with governance and Russia-related scrutiny still in focus.

Defense Oversight: President Tokayev ordered a comprehensive review of Kazakhstan’s Defence Ministry after the Caspian Sea drill tragedy, with a commission set to report initial findings within a week and five senior officials detained over alleged negligence. Leadership Change: Tokayev dismissed Defence Minister Dauren Kosanov and appointed Major General Aidos Myrzakhmetov, following the deaths of 14 servicemen during exercises in Mangystau. Education & Mobility: Kazakhstan is looking to restart higher-education ties with Malaysia, focusing on student exchanges, research cooperation, and possible Malaysian university branch campuses in Kazakhstan. Digital Finance Expansion: VEON’s JV with Square Group received Bangladesh Bank approval for a digital bank licence, with VEON pledging $250m and aiming to mobilize $1bn in FDI; VEON says it already serves 59m active customers across Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Central Bank Gold Trend: Reported net gold purchases by central banks reached about 130 tonnes through July, with some countries shifting storage locations rather than reducing holdings. International Business Diplomacy: The US plans a C5+1 meeting in Samarkand with a delegation of 100+ American companies, spotlighting trade, private investment and modernization across Central Asia. Regional Trade/Connectivity: Kazakhstan and China are pushing deeper investment and trade links, including new deals and a push to raise trade turnover.

Defence Oversight: President Tokayev has ordered a comprehensive inspection of Kazakhstan’s Defence Ministry, setting up a commission led by Security Council deputy chair Aida Balayeva with a seven-day deadline for initial findings, after the Sept 24 Caspian Sea drill tragedy that killed 14 servicemen and led to detentions of five officials. Gold Demand: Central banks’ reported net gold purchases reached about 130 tonnes through July, with Poland and China leading, though analysts note reserve moves between storage sites don’t necessarily mean selling. Chess & Governance: Timur Turlov, a Kazakh businessman under Ukrainian sanctions, was elected FIDE president in Samarkand, with Viswanathan Anand named deputy, as the federation faces scrutiny over Russian influence and digital modernization plans. Education Diplomacy: Kazakhstan is looking to revive higher-education ties with Malaysia via student mobility, research cooperation and possible Malaysian university branch campuses. Regional Connectivity Lens: A new analysis argues TRIPP’s biggest risk for Armenia is “economic time” as other corridors race ahead on financing and construction speed. Labour & Skills: Astana’s Joltap programme results show 60% employment among trained participants and about 2,000 new businesses, alongside a broader push to scale digital employment services. Archaeology: Excavations at medieval Kesken-Kuyuk in southern Kazakhstan uncovered new buildings and altar sites, potentially linking the area to the Huvara city mentioned in medieval sources.

FIDE Leadership Shake-up: Kazakh businessman Timur Turlov was elected FIDE president in Samarkand, with Indian GM Viswanathan Anand named his deputy, as the vote focused on governance, Russia’s role, and FIDE’s financial independence. Education & Diplomacy: Malaysia’s higher education minister Datuk Seri Zambry Abd Kadir urged a “five-pillar” knowledge partnership with Kazakhstan covering student mobility, research, digital education, culture, and human development. UN Economic Security & Energy Risks: Kazakhstan’s FM Mukhtar Tileuberdi warned at the UN that attacks on Black Sea infrastructure used for Kazakh crude exports threaten trade and energy stability, calling for renewed diplomacy in both Ukraine and the Middle East. Kazakhstan–China Trade Push: President Tokayev said bilateral trade could reach $100bn, citing $32.4bn in the first seven months of 2026 and over $29bn in Chinese investment in Kazakhstan. Regional Energy Flows: Russia boosted diesel supplies to Kyrgyzstan 16-fold in August to over 72,000 tons, while Kazakhstan and other neighbors also received higher volumes. AI Talent Boost: Kazakhstan’s AI Month hackathon in Astana set a Guinness record for the largest agentic AI hackathon, drawing 2,415 participants from 21 countries. Caspian Cooperation: Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan agreed a 2026-2027 Caspian protection programme under the Tehran Convention.