AGP Executive Report

Parliament Reset: President Tokayev marked the end of Kazakhstan’s bicameral era as the new Constitution takes effect tomorrow, with Parliament powers set to end July 1 and elections for a unicameral Qurultai planned for August. Georgian Partnership Push: Tokayev and Georgian PM Irakli Kobakhidze signed a strategic partnership statement in Astana and backed new cooperation in trade, investment, transport/logistics, energy, digitalization and AI, with Kazakhstan also seeking to expand oil transit via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. Utilities Spending: Kazakhstan will channel 27.3 bln tenge into utility infrastructure renewal across six regions, targeting high-wear water and heating networks to cut losses and improve service reliability. Pension Returns: Kazakhstan’s pension investment income topped 2.8 trn tenge over the past 12 months, with the National Bank reporting 11.46% returns. Energy Build-Out: Construction began on a 1 GW wind power plant in Zhambyl (about $1.4 bln), scheduled for full operation in Q3 2029. Food Protection: Kazakhstan temporarily banned fresh/chilled tomato imports from outside the EAEU (22–30 June) to protect domestic producers, while allowing EAEU-origin and transit shipments. Mining Court Case: The death of seven miners at Kazakhmys’ “Zhomart” mine has been transferred to court, with a main hearing set for July 3. EU Energy Role: Kazakhstan strengthened its position as an EU energy supplier, ranking third for crude oil and fourth for coal in Q1 2026 data.

Renewables & AI Infrastructure: Masdar broke ground on a $1.4bn, 1 GW wind farm in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region, pairing 600 MWh battery storage with 400+ km of transmission lines, and signed a roadmap with Kazakhstan’s digital ministry for a 24/7 clean power push to support data centres and AI. Bilateral Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Georgia moved closer with a strategic partnership push as leaders discussed trade, energy, transport and Middle Corridor logistics, including plans to expand Kazakhstan’s presence in Georgian ports and boost container flows. EU/Europe Investment Talks: Kazakhstan and Germany discussed deepening industrial and technology cooperation after 2025 trade hit $4.4bn, with a focus on localization and new production facilities. Regional Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Indonesia flagged wider cooperation across transport, agriculture, digital tech, education and tourism after joint-commission progress. Finance: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified two loans totaling about $965m (IBRD and AIIB) to cover the 2026 budget deficit and sustain social and economic programs. Fuel & Energy Risk: Reports highlight Russia’s gasoline crunch after refinery damage, with implications for Kazakhstan’s energy dependence and supply stability. Education Funding Oversight: Kazakhstan tightened financing and oversight for private secondary schools as their numbers surged, adding digital monitoring to improve transparency. Tech & Industry: Astel and Advantech signed an MoC to expand IIoT initiatives across Kazakhstan’s key sectors.

Critical Minerals & US Politics: A New York Times investigation claims US-backed tungsten access for Kaz Resources was negotiated with direct involvement from senior Trump officials, while Trump Jr./Eric Trump and Howard Lutnick’s family allegedly secured financial stakes soon after—raising fresh conflict-of-interest questions around Kazakhstan’s mining deal. Industrial Gases & Petrochemicals: Air Liquide is investing €70m in Kazakhstan to build and operate large nitrogen units for Silleno’s world-scale polyethylene plant, with commissioning targeted for end-2028 in Atyrau’s Karabatan petrochemical zone. Media Under Pressure: KazTAG says journalists and its website/social pages are hit by bot spam and fake Telegram channels, alongside ongoing DDoS activity. Trade & Food Security: Kazakhstan is considering a six-month quota limiting beef exports (25,000 tons) to support domestic meat processing and curb rising prices. Energy Logistics: With Russia’s fuel shortages deepening, some freight carriers are rerouting trucks through Kazakhstan—though customs delays could become a new bottleneck. AI & Education Policy: Analysis warns Kazakhstan’s school AI rollout risks failure due to weak Kazakh-language scientific vocabulary and drafting gaps in state language laws. Trusted AI Supply Chains: Kazakhstan’s accession to the US-led Pax Silica initiative is framed as an investment signal for AI infrastructure, critical minerals, and secure supply chains. Tourism Investment: Melco plans to explore tourism infrastructure projects in Kazakhstan, including Alatau’s “future city” development. Disaster Monitoring: Kazakhstan, China, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan signed up to jointly build a Central Asia disaster-monitoring satellite constellation.

Creative Industries & Trade: Pavlodar region showcased locally made crafts and IT projects at an Astana fair, with organizers saying featured products generated over 1 million tenge in sales on day one, as part of the “Creative Aimaq” push to back regional brands and entrepreneurship. EU-Kazakhstan Deals: During President Tokayev’s Brussels visit, Kazakhstan and the EU signed strategic documents and about 30 commercial agreements worth roughly €10bn, including an Air Astana–Airbus €7.3bn aircraft deal and an Alstom locomotive servicing contract via Samruk-Kazyna. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia are working on a unified long-term tariff model for the Trans-Caspian route, with plans to expand Caspian cargo capacity, dredge with Azerbaijan and upgrade Kuryk port to boost containerized freight. AI Supply-Chain Cooperation: Kazakhstan joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative, signing the AI Opportunity Partnership framework in Washington with Deputy PM and AI minister Zhaslan Madiyev. Payments Innovation in Central Asia: SQRIL announced it is entering Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) with stablecoin-to-QR payments aimed at undercutting card fees and expanding merchant acceptance. Water & Energy Context: A global look at safe drinking water highlights major gaps still leaving billions without safely managed service, while separate reporting notes rising gas flaring pressures on energy security and the environment.

EU-Kazakhstan Deal Push: President Tokayev’s Brussels visit wrapped with Kazakhstan and the EU signing strategic documents and 30 commercial deals worth about €10bn, including a €7.3bn Air Astana–Airbus aircraft contract and a €967m Alstom locomotive servicing deal, as officials stress Europe’s role as Kazakhstan’s top trade and investment partner. AI Supply-Chain Diplomacy: Kazakhstan joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative, signing a declaration on accession and an “AI Opportunity” partnership statement at a Washington summit, with commitments aimed at trusted AI cooperation, semiconductors, battery production, and critical-minerals processing. Middle Corridor Logistics: Rail freight between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan is accelerating, with KTZ reporting 31% growth in Q1 2026 and up to 46% higher volumes in the first five months, reinforcing the North–South corridor’s eastern branch. Energy & Environment Watch: World Bank data says global gas flaring rose again in 2025, reaching a six-year high, highlighting ongoing methane and energy-security concerns. Governance & Tech in Public Service: Kazakhstan’s Astana Civil Service Hub hosted discussions on using AI in government while keeping transparency, data protection, and human-centered decision-making front and center.

AI & Supply Chains: Kazakhstan joined the US-led Pax Silica push, signing documents on trusted AI cooperation and an “AI Opportunity” partnership aimed at boosting semiconductors, critical minerals processing, and tech investment. Regional Trade & Logistics: Rail freight between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan jumped 31% in Q1 2026 and is up 46% in the first five months, reflecting momentum on the North–South corridor. Energy & Environment: World Bank data shows global gas flaring rose again in 2025 to a six-year high, with flaring worth about $54bn—raising pressure on Kazakhstan and peers to curb routine burning. Finance & Reserves: Central banks’ gold buying hit the highest levels since 1975, with reserves now a key focus for risk management. Infrastructure Projects: Kazakhstan is also linked to Middle Corridor capacity upgrades, including port expansion efforts tied to regional trade growth.

AI Governance: Kazakhstan civil servants and international partners discussed how AI can improve public services while protecting transparency, data privacy, and meaningful human control at the UN Public Service Forum. Trusted AI Supply Chains: The US-led Pax Silica push added Kazakhstan to a growing coalition: 35 countries signed a joint statement on “AI opportunity,” while the alliance expanded to 24 members focused on semiconductors, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and digital infrastructure. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia are working on a unified long-term tariff model for the Middle Corridor, alongside port and fleet upgrades to boost containerization and throughput. Iran Trade Access: Kazakhstan plans a private-investment cargo transshipment terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas (15 hectares) to open routes to South/Southeast Asia, with talks aimed at easing sanctions-linked import and transit limits. EU Business Ties: Kazakhstan and the EU completed expert talks on visa facilitation and readmission; both sides will now run domestic procedures to simplify visa processing and improve people-to-people access. Energy & Fuel Pressure: Kazakhstan is weighing fuel risks as Russia seeks gasoline imports amid refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes, while Astana also tightened domestic controls and considers possible China fuel imports. Pension Rules: Kazakhstan sharply limited early pension withdrawals by raising the minimum “sufficiency” thresholds, reducing eligibility for accessing savings before retirement.

Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia are working on a unified long-term tariff model for the Middle Corridor, alongside port and fleet upgrades to boost containerization and cargo turnover. Iran Trade Link: Kazakhstan plans a private-financed cargo transshipment terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas (15 hectares), using the Aktau–Turkmenistan–Iran rail route via Etrek and Serakhs to reach India, East Africa, the Gulf and Southeast Asia; Astana also expects sanctions-related import/transit bans on some energy goods to be lifted after the deal. Kazakhstan–EU Mobility: Expert-level talks on Kazakhstan-EU visa facilitation and readmission agreements are complete; both sides now run domestic procedures before signing, aiming to speed processing and ease documentation for people-to-people and business ties. Kazakhstan–China Trade Push: Astana and Beijing reaffirm plans to nearly double trade toward $100 billion, citing record $48.7bn turnover in 2025 and $22bn in Jan–May 2026, with a 2027–2030 roadmap to accelerate approvals. Energy Resilience Watch: Reuters reports Russia is in talks to import about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan amid refinery outages, while Kazakhstan weighs domestic supply security and possible fuel imports from China. Mining & Tech: ERG’s Aluminium of Kazakhstan launches the world’s first vertical bauxite mining project using rotary drilling to cut overburden and improve ore precision; separately, Kazakhstan’s data center plans expand with a new Ekibastuz facility tied to a $10bn U.S.-linked investment. Parliament & Inflation: Parliament debated the 2025 budget execution; officials cite 6.5% growth, inflation easing to 10.4% and a target to bring inflation below 10%.

AI & Digital Infrastructure: SuperX AI Technology met Kazakhstan’s PM about a proposed 1 GW AI computing park, signaling fresh state-backed demand for regional digital capacity. Logistics & Border Modernization: Kazakhstan is reconstructing 37 border crossing points, adding new inspection/monitoring complexes and expanding the “E-Zholdar” unified road information system to cut corridor bottlenecks. Energy Security & Fuel Imports: Kazakhstan plans to exempt Chinese gasoline imports from duties to stabilize domestic supply amid Russia’s reduced role; aviation kerosene remains the key gap. Parliament & Regulation: The Kazakh Senate set a packed 14-item agenda including environmental, security, economic bills, plus ratification of a water resources management agreement with Uzbekistan. Trade & Connectivity with Europe: Tokayev’s Brussels visit deepened EU-Kazakhstan strategic partnership, with focus on critical raw materials, energy, transport, digitalization and supply-chain resilience under Global Gateway. Capital Markets: Kazakhstan Stock Exchange listed US-based crypto ETFs, including Volatility Shares Solana ETF and BlackRock Ethereum Trust, under its regulated framework. Regional Deals & Tourism: Kazakhstan and Thailand signed a 2027–2028 cooperation roadmap spanning trade, transport, green energy, strategic minerals and tourism, with visa-free tourism already boosting flows. SCO Economic Cooperation: Kazakhstan-linked regional discussions highlighted SCO priorities like digital trade, green energy, logistics and youth entrepreneurship to sustain high growth.

AI Supply Chain Diplomacy: The US-led “Pax Silica” initiative added more countries, including Kazakhstan, as 35 states signed a declaration aimed at securing AI-related technology supplies and reducing overreliance on any single system. Rail Digitalization: Kazakhstan launched Starlink internet on the Astana–Semey–Dostyk rail route, using Kaztechnology and Aray Trans KZ to bring connectivity to previously dead zones and expand passenger digital services. EU-Kazakhstan Relations: The European Parliament praised President Tokayev’s Brussels visit, saying Kazakhstan is entering a more mature, trust-based EU strategic partnership phase. Kazakhstan–China Trade Push: Talks highlighted momentum in Kazakhstan-China cooperation, with both sides aiming to lift bilateral trade toward $100bn and deepen investment and logistics links. Banking Expansion: Kaspi.kz received Turkey’s regulator approval to acquire Rabobank A.Ş., with closing expected in July 2026, as it plans to scale digital payments and fintech services in Turkey. Eurasian Finance: The EDB said it will invest $13.5bn across member states under its 2027–2031 strategy, prioritizing transport, food security and high-value industry. Regional Connectivity & Rules: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan agreed to fully switch to electronic road transport permits, aiming to cut admin friction and speed cross-border freight operations. Tourism & People-to-People: Thailand’s foreign minister said visa-free access and direct flights could boost Kazakh tourist numbers, while both sides discussed education and business links.

EDB & Investment Climate: The Eurasian Development Bank’s Annual Meeting and Business Forum opened in Almaty, with Kazakhstan’s PM Olzhas Bektenov urging new cross-border opportunities in sustainable development, digital tech, Islamic finance, and transport. Middle Corridor & Ports: Kazakhstan is pushing Aktau Port dredging ahead—China Harbour Engineering plans to raise navigable depth to 6–7 meters by end-2026, aiming to lift TITR capacity from 6 to 10 million tons by 2028; meanwhile, Chinese cargo transit through Kazakhstan hit a record 20.2m tons in 2025 (+32%). Digital Infrastructure Push: SuperX AI Technology met Bektenov to discuss a phased 1GW AI computing park, aligning with Kazakhstan’s Year of Digitalization and AI and plans to expand sovereign computing capacity. Banking Sector Momentum: Kazakhstan’s banks’ assets rose 15% to 70.8tn tenge, with capital buffers above regulatory minimums; Bank RBK reported loan portfolio growth of 39.6% YoY to KZT 1.6tn. EU Finance & Trade Links: Baiterek secured a $780m loan for road projects with a European syndicate backed by World Bank MIGA, plus additional Middle Corridor cooperation talks with EIB and export-insurance steps with Credendo. Fuel Supply Watch: Reuters reports Russia is in talks with Kazakhstan to import about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline as refinery outages bite, though Kazakhstan’s energy minister previously said no official request had been received. Credit Rating Update: S&P upgraded Freedom Holding Corp. subsidiaries’ ratings to “BB-” with stable outlooks, citing improved risk management.

Middle Corridor Push: Kazakhstan is working with Georgia and Azerbaijan on a unified long-term tariff model for the TITR “Middle Corridor,” alongside port and fleet upgrades. EU Connectivity Funding: The European Commission launched a Connectivity Agenda Platform and lined up up to €2bn for transport, border-crossing and trade-facilitation projects across the Black Sea and South Caucasus—Kazakhstan is positioned as a key Europe-Asia link. Aktau Port Upgrade: CHEC is gearing up for Aktau Port dredging, with major works set for late July and completion targeted for end-2026 to boost the port draft and TITR capacity. Aviation Deal: Air Astana signed Kazakhstan’s biggest-ever aircraft order—up to 50 Airbus A320neo family jets worth over €7bn—aimed at expanding connectivity. EU-Kazakhstan Breakthrough: Tokayev’s Brussels visit delivered an aviation agreement, progress on short-stay visa facilitation, and a wider €12bn+ business package. Fuel Supply Watch: Russia is reportedly negotiating with Kazakhstan to import about 50,000 tons of AI-92 gasoline as refinery downtime bites. Fintech Expansion: Kaspi.kz received Turkish regulatory approval to acquire Rabobank A.Ş., with a July 2026 close expected. AI Infrastructure: SuperX is considering a Kazakhstan AI data center cluster up to 1GW, discussed with PM Bektenov at Summer Davos.

EU-Kazakhstan Deal Push: President Tokayev’s Brussels visit focused on turning strategy into projects, with commercial agreements and memorandums worth over $12bn and a joint statement reinforcing cooperation on transport, critical raw materials, energy, digital transformation, agriculture, water security and climate. Middle Corridor Upgrade: Kazakhstan plans to modernize Aktau Port via large-scale dredging by end-2026 to boost Trans-Caspian capacity (targeting 10m tons annually by 2028), while EBRD backs road upgrades in western Kazakhstan with up to €230m to strengthen the Trans-Caspian corridor. Aviation & Connectivity: A Horizontal Aviation Agreement and progress on visa facilitation/readmission were highlighted, alongside talks with Groupe ADP on Almaty Airport’s long-term expansion to 55m passengers a year by 2050. Belgium Ties: Tokayev met Belgium PM Bart de Wever, citing $15bn Belgian investment over 20 years and growing trade. Afghanistan Trade Link: Kazakhstan signed an $18.88m zinc ore supply deal with Afghan German Bakhtar Company (30,000 tons annually) via the new Kazakhstan Trade House in Kabul. Digital Trade (Turkic bloc): Türkiye completed internal steps for the OTS Digital Economy Partnership; it takes effect after Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ratify. Rare Earths Sales Hub: Lindian Resources is setting up a Singapore office to bring rare-earth marketing in-house for its Kazakhstan-linked rare earth carbonate and Malawi monazite concentrate.

EU-Kazakhstan Strategic Push: President Tokayev met EU leaders in Brussels and the sides signed a joint strategic declaration plus deals on connectivity (including aviation), critical raw materials, energy, transport, digitalisation and emerging tech, aiming to turn Kazakhstan’s “gateway” role into jobs and trade growth. Middle Corridor Funding: Kazakhstan and European partners unveiled transport packages worth about $462m, while the EBRD approved up to €230m (with AIIB co-financing) to upgrade a 234-km road stretch in western Kazakhstan to boost the Trans-Caspian corridor. EU Science & AI Cooperation: Kazakhstan and the EU signed agreements to expand research, innovation, AI and higher education, including new lab and mirror-lab plans with KU Leuven, Ghent University and Astana Hub focused on critical raw materials and sustainable technologies. China Trade & Investment Talks: PM Bektenov met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Dalian, with both sides stressing deeper trade, energy/minerals cooperation, connectivity and digital economy projects; Kazakhstan–China trade was reported at record levels. Turkic Digital Trade Step: Türkiye completed ratification of an OTS digital economy partnership agreement, which will enter into force after Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan finish approvals to reduce barriers in e-commerce and cross-border data-based activity. Business Links with Belgium & Netherlands: Tokayev met Belgian PM De Wever to expand transport, critical minerals, AI and finance ties; separately, Kazakhstan and the Netherlands agreed €160m agri-food and logistics projects at GreenTech Amsterdam, with Dutch investment cited above $125bn. Kazakhstan Economy Signals: Finprom.kz reported remittances have limited impact, with outgoing transfers from Kazakhstan down in Jan–Apr 2026. Energy/Industry Note: Chevron highlighted production growth and Kazakhstan exposure among its asset base, as investors tracked broader energy-sector momentum.

Kazakhstan-EU Push: President Tokayev says the Kazakhstan–EU partnership is “more important than ever,” with priorities on resilience, connectivity (including the Middle Corridor) and new citizen opportunities as Brussels and Astana deepen trade and investment ties. EU Steel Shock: South Korea reached a broad consensus with the EU on steel tariff-rate quotas, aiming to avoid the full 46% quota cut and warning the EU measure conflicts with free-trade rules—an external signal for regional steel competitiveness. Household Debt Pressure: A Demoscope survey finds 72.7% of Kazakhstani respondents have loans or borrowings, and 46.7% spend over half their monthly income on debt payments, highlighting mounting financial strain. Afghanistan Engagement Without Recognition: Kazakhstan reiterates “pragmatic engagement without recognition” toward Afghanistan, focusing on transport, energy and humanitarian ties while relying on UN Security Council decisions on recognition. Trade Infrastructure in Afghanistan: Kazakhstan opened a Kabul trade house to boost exports and signed zinc ore supply arrangements, while logistics talks stress Middle Corridor capacity and digitalization. Regional Connectivity: The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway corridor could be completed by 2028–2029, potentially cutting China–Europe transit by about 1,000 km and reshaping Central Asian freight flows.

Kazakhstan–EU Deal Push: President Tokayev heads to Brussels to advance implementation of the expanded Kazakhstan–EU partnership, with priorities on resilience, connectivity (including the Middle Corridor), and easier people-to-people access, plus a business roundtable with major European firms. Afghanistan Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan opened a Kabul trade house to showcase and sell Kazakh goods (including autos and pharmaceuticals) and signed a zinc-ore supply contract, while talks in Kabul also covered processing Afghan aquamarine and zinc at Kazakh facilities. Water Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s universities plan to set up a Kabul-based water resources and irrigation center to train specialists and run joint research on sustainable agriculture and climate adaptation. Regional Security for Trade: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan discussed cooperation against transnational crime and drug trafficking, including training Afghan canine service specialists and Kazakhstan’s role in modernizing a nitrogen plant in Mazar-i-Sharif. Household Incomes Plan: The government unveiled a 2026–2029 plan to raise household incomes via wage indexation and inflation control, aiming to ease debt—though the guaranteed mechanism covers only a small share of the population. Credit Outlook: Fitch affirmed Kazakhstan’s BBB sovereign rating with a stable outlook, citing strong external buffers and low government debt. Venture Capital Signal: Alem Capital backed Sturgeon Capital’s $25m Central Asia VC fund-of-funds, marking a first publicly disclosed Kazakh institutional bet on regional startups. Finance Link to China: The Eurasian Development Bank received a China interbank bond market license, enabling direct yuan bond trades and repo operations to support projects.