AGP Executive Report

Alatau City Push: Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered faster rollout of Kazakhstan’s Alatau City special regime, with a long-term plan to 2055 and smart-city concepts (AI, digital twin, Web3) backed by a 2 trillion tenge pool of 53 investment projects and 51,000 jobs. Road Toll Expansion: Kazakhstan’s toll regime starts on three more national highway sections from July 10-11, using automatic license-plate recognition and offering discounted subscriptions for nearby residents. Investor Cooperation Reset: Bektenov said the new Constitution is triggering a “new phase” of cooperation with investors and a legal-system reset to support economic reforms. E-commerce Rules: The Trade and Integration Ministry published an official list of goods banned or restricted for sale on online marketplaces to standardize platform moderation and seller compliance. Transport AI Deal: Kazakhstan’s Transport Ministry signed a term sheet with UAE AI firm Presight to build a sovereign operational intelligence platform for safer, smarter transport management. Procurement Portal Overcharges: Prosecutors found entrepreneurs were overcharged for state procurement portal access; tariffs will be recalculated from payment dates and overpaid amounts returned to 80,000+ entrepreneurs. Regional Outlook: The ADB kept Kazakhstan’s growth and inflation forecasts unchanged for 2026-2027, while warning about broader regional pressures. Uranium Demand Signal: India’s NTPC is seeking consultants to identify overseas uranium mines, including Kazakhstan, to secure fuel for major nuclear capacity plans. Energy Safety Debate: A deadly gas-cylinder blast in Shchuchinsk has renewed scrutiny of Kazakhstan’s fragmented gas distribution system, despite large reserves. Geopolitics & Trade: The Hormuz crisis deepened as US strikes targeted Iran’s ability to control the strait, raising risks for global shipping and energy flows.

Court & Energy: The AIFC Court in Astana revoked an enforcement order over Naftogaz’s $1.4bn arbitration claim against Gazprom, citing lack of jurisdiction, though Naftogaz says it will keep pursuing recovery in Kazakhstan. Transport & Tech: Kazakhstan signed a term sheet with UAE’s Presight to build an AI-powered national transport intelligence platform aimed at better road safety, oversight and infrastructure resilience. Energy Policy: PM Bektenov ordered tighter weekly monitoring of gas processing and transport projects tied to Kashagan and Karachaganak and wider gasification goals. Water Digitalization: Kazakhstan’s National Water Resources Information System is now live, covering thousands of rivers, lakes and hydraulic structures, with rollout delays flagged for regional budgets. Finance & Banking: Bank RBK climbed three places among Kazakhstan’s largest second-tier banks on monthly asset growth, while Bank CenterCredit published its sustainability report with higher ESG scoring. Digital Economy: Kazakhstan’s IT services market hit a record ₸2.9tn in 2025, led by Almaty and Astana. Trade & Investment: Kazakhstan–U.S. talks with Senator Steve Daines focused on deepening economic ties and implementing bilateral agreements, while Kazakhstan–Afghanistan discussions stressed correspondent banking to expand trade. Mining & Industry: Cove Kaz Capital began site preparation for its Northern Katpar tungsten project ahead of the definitive feasibility study.

Food Prices Watch: Kazakhstan saw weekly deflation in socially significant foods (June 24–July 1), with tomatoes (-8.5%) and cucumbers (-8.3%) leading the drop, while rice, bread and milk stayed flat and cabbage jumped (+7.9%). Financial Crime Crackdown: Kazakhstan’s Financial Monitoring Agency says more than 112 billion tenge has moved through “money mule” accounts since the start of the year, with 33 laundering cells smashed and over 1,000 “dropper” cards blocked in the last two months. Crypto Policy Push: President Tokayev signed a decree to ease stablecoin cross-border payments, offer income-tax relief to retail traders, and allow miners to burn unneeded gas for power—aiming to pull crypto business into a regulated market. Fuel Smuggling Controls: Kazakhstan tightened border rules to curb “grey” fuel exports, limiting vehicle entry from neighboring countries to once per day and targeting cars with extra fuel tanks. Energy & Security Spillover: A Chevron-linked tanker used for Caspian Pipeline Consortium shipments (Yasa Polaris) was hit by a drone off Russia’s Black Sea coast; Chevron says Kazakhstan exports were not affected. Trade & Legal Update: Kazakhstan’s AIFC court overturned an earlier decision tied to recovering about $1.4 billion from Gazprom in a Naftogaz dispute, citing jurisdiction issues. Diplomacy & Investment Links: Tokayev met US Senator Steve Daines, highlighting growing trade and investment ties and readiness for deeper cooperation ahead of Kazakhstan’s G20-related visit.

Crypto Regulation Push: President Tokayev signed a decree to expand Kazakhstan’s crypto framework, easing stablecoin cross-border payments, offering income-tax relief for retail traders, and allowing miners to burn unneeded gas for power—aimed at pulling crypto activity into a regulated market. Fuel Border Crackdown: Kazakhstan introduced strict one-entry-per-day limits for cargo and passenger vehicles from neighboring countries to curb “gray” fuel exports, after Russia’s fuel shortages drove drivers into Kazakhstan queues. Regional Energy Stress: Kazakhstan is weighing Kyrgyzstan’s request for gasoline supplies as Russia’s export ban continues, while Kazakhstan plans to extend its own fuel export restrictions until May 2027. Oil Supply Risk: A Chevron-linked tanker used for Caspian Pipeline Consortium shipments (Yasa Polaris) was hit by a drone off Russia’s Black Sea coast; Chevron said Kazakhstan exports weren’t disrupted. Transport Tech Deal: Presight signed a term sheet with Kazakhstan’s transport ministry to build a national operational intelligence platform using sovereign AI for smarter, safer transport management. AI & Digital Branding: Kazakhstan showcased its national AI pavilion at the AI for Good summit in Geneva, pitching itself as an emerging Eurasian AI and data hub. UNESCO Bid: Aral Geopark is under international assessment for potential UNESCO Global Geopark status, with tourism and local development in focus. Business & Industry: Steppe Cement reported a 43% jump in 1H26 revenue on higher sales volumes and price gains; Samruk-Kazyna also terminated the powers of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy board chair Talgat Aldybergenov.

Rail & Logistics: Kazakhstan Railways’ KTZ Express launched a circular rail route linking China and Russia via Kazakhstan, with a full turnaround of about 20 days and support for container handling; between April and June it moved 13 container trains (~1,600 TEUs). Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan plans to build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port under a 27-year deal (2 years construction, 25 years operation), aiming to boost transit along the North–South corridor and reach Persian Gulf, South Asia, and East Africa markets. Energy & Industry: The government approved plans to develop 30 new oil and gas fields and to raise gasification coverage to 80% by 2035; Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said gasification access is set to expand from 64.2% to 80% by 2035. Digital Economy: Presight and Kazakhstan’s Transport Ministry signed a term sheet to explore a national transport operational intelligence platform using sovereign AI for real-time visibility and predictive insights. Finance & Oversight: Kazakhstan’s Supreme Audit Chamber reported 128 billion tenge recovered for the state budget in H1 2026, with audits covering 5.8 trillion tenge. Corporate Governance: Samruk-Kazyna terminated Talgat Aldybergenov’s powers as head of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy. Policy & Regulation: Kazakhstan’s decree advances the legal framework for digital assets, aiming to attract investment and regulate trading and participants’ rights.

INNOPROM industrial push: Kazakhstan’s PM Olzhas Bektenov joined regional leaders at Russia’s INNOPROM in Yekaterinburg, with Kuwait also taking part via its embassy, as governments and industry discussed supply chains, advanced tech and industrial transformation. Eurasian Development Bank momentum: Almaty hosted the EDB’s “Eurasia 2030+” forum with 700+ delegates, where the EDB council backed a 2027–2031 strategy focused on transport/logistics, high-value industries and attracting international capital. Iran trade route despite tensions: Kazakhstan plans a private terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas (about 15 hectares) to export via Aktau–rail through Turkmenistan, aiming for access to India, the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia. Energy security at home: The government says Kazakhstan is expanding its gas resource base and processing capacity under 2025–2029 plans, including Kashagan gas processing progress and new field commissioning targets. Digital transformation hub: Kazakhstan and the ITU agreed to set up an ITU Acceleration Centre in Kazakhstan to build AI expertise, GovTech skills and regional digital capacity. Business & finance: Steppe Cement reported 1H revenue up 43% to KZT 29.59bn on higher volumes, while ForteBank discussed its Home Credit Bank acquisition as part of retail growth. Cyber risk watch: A new AnyDesk-based phishing campaign is being flagged for turning remote access into long-term espionage control.

EU–Kazakhstan Investment Climate: EU Ambassador Aleshka Simkich says European firms hesitate over Kazakhstan’s shifting legislation, uneven decision-making, and uncertainty in dispute resolution/arbitration. Constitution & Business Rules: An expert argues Kazakhstan’s new Constitution strengthens a “rules-based economy,” with clearer investor and private property protections and special accelerated-development city frameworks that could speed innovation. Digital Push: UN AI governance talks in Geneva featured Kazakhstan’s plan to evolve from e-government to an “AI-native” state, citing 92% digitized services and a proposed regional digital solutions center in Almaty. Cyber Threats: Kaspersky reports an APT group, “Armored Likho,” targeting government and power entities, with victims including Kazakhstan, using spear-phishing and malware such as BusySnake. Fuel Export Crackdown: Kazakhstan tightened border controls, stopping 61 fuel-smuggling attempts over two days and extending the gasoline export ban timeline toward May 2027. Trade & Industry Showcase: Olzhas Bektenov highlighted Kazakhstan’s investment and industrial potential at INNOPROM 2026, stressing deep processing, advanced materials, and high-tech manufacturing support. Capital Markets Spotlight: SCMP will debut its China Conference in Astana in September, following a Hong Kong delegation visit that signed deals worth $1.65bn with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Aviation/Manufacturing: COMAC showcased its C909 medical aircraft in Almaty, pitching specialized aircraft as a lower-barrier route to overseas markets.

Fuel Export Crackdown: Kazakhstan tightened border controls to stop illegal fuel exports, with mobile patrols preventing 61 attempts over two days (over 3 tons) and authorities increasing checks on gas stations and mini-refineries. Energy Markets: Oil prices slipped as OPEC+ agreed to raise August output by 188,000 bpd; markets also watched partial Hormuz reopening amid ongoing uncertainty. Industrial Cooperation: At Innoprom in Yekaterinburg, Kazakhstan and Russia reported 122 of 177 joint industrial projects implemented (about $22.4bn), spanning engineering, metallurgy and chemicals. Critical Minerals Push: Kazakh scientists tested a lithium recovery method from low-grade ore, aiming to boost processing capacity for battery supply chains. Plastic Pollution Treaty: Kazakhstan joined UN Nairobi talks on a global plastic pollution agreement, outlining national positions and highlighting its EcoQolday waste-tracking system. Regional Finance: Kyrgyzstan launched the Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory to attract foreign capital with a long tax holiday and English-law dispute resolution.

OPEC+ Oil Signal for Kazakhstan: Seven OPEC+ members including Kazakhstan agreed to lift August output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, continuing the gradual unwind of 2023 voluntary cuts as oil prices ease and Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes. Fuel-Security Crackdown: Kazakhstan reported stopping 61 fuel smuggling attempts over two days at border checkpoints, including hidden tanks and canisters, while officials said domestic refinery operations and fuel stocks remain sufficient. Industrial Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s PM Olzhas Bektenov is among regional leaders attending Russia’s Innoprom in Ekaterinburg, where Mishustin will address the plenary session and meet EAEU counterparts. Central Asia Investment Push: Kyrgyzstan launched the Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory, aiming to attract Southeast Asian capital with stronger legal guarantees—an approach Kazakhstan investors may watch closely. Crypto Policy Watch: Kazakhstan continues moving on digital finance and regulation, as regional coverage highlights faster adoption in some hubs and tighter oversight elsewhere.

Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: Kazakhstan says mobile border patrols stopped 61 attempts to illegally export fuel in just two days, including more than 3 tons hidden in extra tanks and canisters; since the start of the year, 593 such attempts have been blocked (over 40,000 liters), while officials say domestic fuel supply remains stable and refineries are operating normally. OPEC+ Output Plan: OPEC+ approved another 188,000 bpd quota increase for August, with Kazakhstan among the seven members raising output as Strait of Hormuz shipping gradually normalizes and oil prices slide back toward pre-conflict levels. Kazakhstan–IsDB Milestone: The Islamic Development Bank Group was admitted as an observer to Kazakhstan’s Foreign Investors’ Council, with President Tokayev highlighting Islamic finance’s role in investment mobilization and digital transformation; IsDB chairman also received the Order of Dostyk. Caspian Water Support: Japan pledged $3m (¥465m) with UNDP to help Kazakhstan and other Caspian states manage declining water levels, improve monitoring, and coordinate regional cooperation. Cross-Border Tourism Link: Seasonal direct flights launched between Kyrgyzstan’s Tamchy (Issyk-Kul) and Astana twice a week through Aug. 31, aiming to boost travel and business ties. Pharma Cooperation: Kazakhstan and India agreed to expand pharmaceutical projects and trade, including plans for direct Almaty–Ahmedabad flights and new joint initiatives.

Constitution & Elections: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution has entered into force, kicking off sweeping political reforms including a new Vice President post and a smaller Parliament, with a snap parliamentary election set for Aug. 23. Energy Trade: Kazakhstan and Georgia agreed in Astana to deepen cooperation and boost oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Fuel Market Control: The government says mobile border groups are working around the clock to curb illegal gasoline exports; in two days, 61 attempts to export over 3 tons were recorded, and authorities are also reviewing gas stations and mini-refineries with unusual sales spikes. Critical Minerals & Finance: EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso stressed Kazakhstan’s long-term edge depends on expanding domestic processing of critical raw materials, while EBRD backs processing projects, including refractory concentrate and gold processing financing. Digital Economy: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing, including progress toward a more automated digital state and infrastructure like the Ekibastuz Data Center Valley. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky flagged a new APT, Armored Likho, targeting government and power-sector organizations in Russia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan with phishing and a Windows infostealer dubbed BusySnake Stealer. Gold Reserves: The World Gold Council reports central banks bought 41 tonnes of gold in May; Kazakhstan is listed among key buyers.

Digital Economy Push: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing, highlighting progress toward a more automated “digital state,” plus plans like Ekibastuz’s Data Center Valley and standards alignment for Central Asia–China digital cooperation. Investment & Policy: President Tokayev used the 38th Foreign Investors Council to stress AI and digitalization as growth drivers, with GDP now above $300bn and foreign investment topping $150bn, alongside a push for a fully digital state. Trade & Pharma Links: Kazakhstan and India agreed to expand pharmaceutical cooperation and trade, including direct flight plans tied to Almaty–Ahmedabad connectivity. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: EBRD backed Kazakhstan’s minerals value-chain push with a €255m loan, while Japan pledged a $3m grant to help address Caspian Sea water decline impacts on logistics and ecosystems. Cybersecurity Risk: Researchers flagged the Armored Likho APT targeting government agencies and the power sector across Russia, Brazil and Kazakhstan, using spear-phishing and AI-generated first-stage malware. Gold Demand: World Gold Council data showed central banks bought a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, with Kazakhstan among the steady buyers. UAE-Kazakhstan Logistics: AD Ports Group’s CEO received Kazakhstan’s Order of Friendship for UAE-Kazakhstan supply-chain cooperation. Regional Mobility: Kazakhstan ranked 109th in the Global Passport Index 2026, while Kyrgyzstan placed 127th.

Investment & AI Push: President Tokayev told the 38th Foreign Investors Council that Kazakhstan will keep its Central Asia investment leadership, citing 6.5% growth in 2025, GDP above $300bn, and FDI over $150bn, with AI and digitalization as the core growth engine. Digital Government: Astana rolled out “Smart Point” service centers with AI support and 24/7 document pickup, aiming to make government services easier for citizens and businesses. Women’s Entrepreneurship Research: The Global Businesswomen Council in Astana plans to launch the G-Index Institute to build an analytics base for women-led SME development; women already account for about 48.5% of Kazakhstan’s SMEs. Trade & Connectivity: Almaty hosted the 21st Kazakhstan–China Commodity Exhibition, with 400+ Chinese firms and 100+ Kazakh participants pushing high-tech and trade deals. Caspian Water Support: Japan pledged a ¥465m ($3m) grant via UNDP to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline. Gold Reserves: World Gold Council data shows central banks bought a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, with Kazakhstan among notable buyers. Transport Links: Azerbaijan Airlines announced new direct flights to Atyrau (from Aug 16) and Aktobe (from Sep 16). Crypto Infrastructure: Solana-linked entities backed Kazakhstan’s $6bn Alatau City plan, targeting blockchain payments, AI-smart city tools, and a startup ecosystem.

Kazakhstan–EAEU Regulation: Kazakhstan plans to open a new lab for EAEU and Central Asia product testing, signaling tighter regional standards and faster compliance for exporters. Fuel Policy: Kazakhstan is set to extend its gasoline and diesel export ban through May 2027, with a public consultation running until July 21—aimed at curbing smuggling and protecting domestic supply. Gold & Finance: Central banks bought 41 tonnes of gold in May; Kazakhstan added 7 tonnes, while EBRD backed a $300m gold processing push in Pavlodar via the Ertis hydrometallurgical complex. Digital Push: Astana rolled out a new “Smart Point” model for AI-enabled government services, while Kazakhstan also unveiled an expanded tech investment agenda focused on AI, digital infrastructure, space tech and Alatau City. Crypto & Regulation: Kazakhstan is moving toward a Central Asia crypto capital vision around Alatau City, but faces regulatory and infrastructure hurdles. Trade & Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Norway held foreign ministry consultations; bilateral trade hit $169.2m in 2025. Aviation Connectivity: Azerbaijan Airlines launches direct flights to Atyrau (from Aug 16) and Aktobe (from Sep 16), boosting western Kazakhstan access. U.S. Trade Watch: USTR hearings next week will review forced-labour import rules, with Kazakhstan among countries expected to submit positions.

Mortgage Watch: Kazakhstan’s central bank and financial regulator will change mortgage pricing from Jan 1, 2027, using a differentiated cap on the maximum annual effective interest rate by loan-to-value: 20% for LTV up to 0.7 and 25% above 0.7 (with the cap staying at 25% until Jan 1, 2027). Investment Diplomacy: President Tokayev met US Chamber of Commerce senior vice president Hush Choksi, signaling continued support for American investors and talks on critical minerals, energy, digital infrastructure, AI, transport and financial services. Development Finance: Tokayev also met Islamic Development Bank chief Muhammad Sulaiman Al-Jasser, citing $4.2bn already financed in Kazakhstan and highlighting new large packages for water infrastructure and support for SEZ/industrial zones. Digital Push: Tokayev met VEON CEO Kaan Terzioglu as the telecom group reaffirmed the Digital Qazaqstan strategy and plans to double operations in Kazakhstan with an extra $1bn investment. Regional Trade & Logistics: Horgos is leaning on faster customs for agricultural shipments via a “green channel,” aiming to cut delays that spoil perishable goods. Energy & Markets: OPEC+ is expected to approve another August output quota hike, while oil prices react to shifting Middle East supply and logistics. Cross-border Finance: HBL was nominated to chair the SCO Interbank Consortium council for 2026–2027, reinforcing regional banking integration.

Fuel & Energy Shock: Russia’s gasoline shortage is worsening fast, with refining volumes down sharply and official sales restrictions spreading to 40+ regions—analysts warn the crisis is only starting, with seasonal demand set to peak in Aug–Sep. Central Asia Spillover: Kyrgyzstan has asked neighbors, including Kazakhstan, for fuel help as regional prices rise and border controls tighten to curb illegal exports. Digital Economy Push: Tokayev backed VEON’s plan to double its Kazakhstan footprint and invest an extra $1bn, while Kazakhstan accelerates AI and “Digital Qazaqstan” goals, including fully digital city Alatau and new computing/cloud infrastructure. Finance & Regulation: Kazakhstan’s central bank issued its first crypto exchange license under updated digital-asset rules, enabling licensed trading, custody and ATMs beyond the AIFC framework. Investment & Development Finance: Tokayev met EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, highlighting 30 years of EBRD support and a framework partnership to expand reforms and sustainable development. Trade & Transport: AD Ports Group reiterated long-term interest in Kazakhstan as the Middle Corridor and Caspian transit capacity remain a priority. SME & Inclusion: Women lead nearly half of Kazakhstan’s SMEs, with education and entrepreneurship support highlighted at a global businesswomen council session. Nuclear Cooperation: Tokayev and Cameco CEO discussed uranium and nuclear fuel-cycle cooperation.