AGP Executive Report

Afghanistan-Kazakhstan Trade Push: A high-level Kazakh delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin arrived in Kabul for an Afghan–Kazakh Trade and Economic Forum, aiming to expand trade, investment and connectivity; officials cite current bilateral trade near $600m and target $3bn, with meetings planned across government and business circles. Credit & Macroeconomic Outlook: Fitch affirmed Kazakhstan’s credit rating, pointing to strong net foreign assets, rising National Fund FX assets (about $66.4bn end-May) and low debt (around 23% of GDP in 2026-27), with oil prices expected to support external stability. Islamic Finance for Agriculture: KazAgroFinance signed an MoU with the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector to unlock up to KZT20bn in Islamic financing for Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial modernization via ijarah leasing. Regional Energy Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Mongolia agreed to set up a joint working group after reviewing a petroleum cooperation memorandum, including a study on potential Kazakh crude and product supplies. Shell Leadership Move: Shell appointed Elohor Aiboni as Executive Vice President and Country Chair for Nigeria, effective Aug 1, 2026, highlighting her prior Kazakhstan experience. Digital & Surveillance Risk: A new report warns state AI-powered surveillance and biometric databases are expanding across many countries, raising risks for businesses and individuals.

UN & Regional Development: President Tokayev signed a law enabling a UN Regional Center for SDGs for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty, with $3m in annual support (2025-2029), aiming to tighten coordination and connectivity. Afghanistan Engagement: Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM is set to arrive in Kabul for a three-day visit to expand cooperation across politics, security, trade, transit and investment. Energy & Costs: Kazakhstan will raise commercial natural gas prices by 33% from July 1 to fund infrastructure upgrades and secure winter supply; separately, it is negotiating with Gazprom on a new pipeline link and plans to import up to 6.3bn cu m of Russian gas annually from 2030. Crypto Regulation: Oman launched “Omanhash,” a mandatory state-backed Bitcoin mining pool for all licensed miners, a move that mirrors Kazakhstan-style reporting and central oversight. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan and Greece discussed expanding trade and investment, while Uzbekistan’s exports to Russia hit $1.5bn (Jan-Apr), with Kazakhstan among key destinations. Bilateral Diplomacy: Montenegro’s President Milatović is in Astana for talks on trade, investment, digitalization and logistics, with chambers of commerce set to sign an MoU. Business & Tech: KazNU opened a Quantum AI lab with seven quantum systems delivered via SpinQ Technology.

Crypto Custody Move: Kazakhstan will transfer confiscated foreign digital assets of Kazakh citizens to a National Strategic Crypto Reserve managed under National Bank infrastructure, aiming to keep assets in Kazakh jurisdiction and protected from third-country claims. Border & Trade Flow: The State Revenue Department in Kostanay said traffic jams at the Kairak checkpoint are driven by seasonal fruit/veg/melon export volumes, normal checkpoint workload (300–350 vehicles/day), and reconstruction at a nearby Russian-adjacent checkpoint. AI Infrastructure Deal: Firebird and Kazakhstan signed a strategic package worth up to $10bn to build a national AI “Data Center Valley,” boosting advanced computing, cloud tech, research, and the digital economy. Payments Modernization: Kazakhstan plans a single interbank QR code for payments starting July 19, tightening retail transaction rails. Regional SDG Framework: President Tokayev approved a law creating a UN Regional Center for Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan, setting the legal basis for programs on climate resilience and inclusive growth. Judicial Cooperation: Tokayev met Turkic states’ top court leaders, pushing judicial digitalization and stronger investor-rights protection. Logistics & Transit: Iran’s roads minister visited Kazakhstan to discuss combined rail-road transit hubs linking China–Kazakhstan–Iran toward Turkey and Europe. EAEU/ASEAN/SCO Angle: ASEAN said it’s ready to deepen cooperation with the EAEU and SCO on transnational crime and energy security.

AI Infrastructure Deal: Firebird and Kazakhstan signed a strategic cooperation package worth up to $10bn to build next-gen national AI infrastructure, including advanced computing, cloud tech and a “Data Center Valley” ecosystem in Astana. Digital Payments: Kazakhstan’s National Bank says a single interbank QR code for cashless payments will roll out from July 19, after a 2024 pilot and repeated delays. UN Multilateral Hub: President Tokayev ratified the creation of a UN Regional SDG Center for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty, with Kazakhstan pledging $3m annually (2025-2029). Regional Trade Logistics: TRACECA’s secretary general says the Middle Corridor’s next bottleneck is governance—digitisation, shared documents and harmonised customs—after cargo volumes rose from under 1m tonnes (2021) to ~4.5m (2025). Crypto Mining Oversight: Oman launched a mandatory state-backed bitcoin mining pool (OmanHash) requiring licensed miners to use it—highlighting a Kazakhstan precedent with btcpool.kz. Air Connectivity: Lufthansa will suspend winter flights to Kazakhstan for the 2025-26 season, resuming in spring 2027. Drug Enforcement Online: Kazakhstan referred nearly 12,000 drug-related websites for blocking since the start of 2026 and says suspicious financial flows worth 107m tenge were halted.

AI Infrastructure Deal: Kazakhstan signed a $10bn “Data Center Valley” package with Nvidia-backed Firebird to build an AI and data-center hub near Ekibastuz, with Phase 1 worth $5bn and a planned 125MW data center, aiming to turn the country into a regional digital hub. Digital Finance & Connectivity: Kazakhstan also secured preferential financing from IBRD and AIIB in yen terms (about $965m) for priority economic measures, while Kcell launched carrier billing with Halyk terminals and Transtelecom expanded village broadband via Freedom Connect under the Accessible Internet project. Trade & Logistics: Iran offered Kazakhstan access to port infrastructure via Shahid Rajaee Port (land plot allocation for Kazakhstan) and Chabahar Port to support North-South Corridor cargo flows. Regional Investment Push: Uzbekistan used the Tashkent Investment Forum to pitch “tax-free zones” for AI/data centres and broader investor-friendly reforms, while TIIF discussions also signaled a shift in special economic zones from tax incentives toward industrial ecosystems. Governance & Compliance: Kazakhstan’s Majilis deputy Magerram Mageramov attacked foreign-funded human rights NGOs, calling them a “mouthpiece” and “foreign agents,” without citing specific studies. Customs Enforcement: In Mangystau, customs at Kuryk seized 34 pieces of jewelry allegedly concealed internally during entry.

AI Infrastructure Deal: Kazakhstan signed a $10B Data Center Valley package with Firebird and NVIDIA in Ekibastuz, targeting a cluster of 100,000 GPUs and pushing the country’s “Year of AI” agenda. Telecom Modernization: U.S. DFC signaled interest in helping modernize Kazakhstan’s Tele2/Altel network via a potential partnership with Qatar’s PIH, aimed at more secure 5G rollout. Digital Payments: Kcell launched carrier billing with Halyk terminals, letting customers pay for goods and services from their mobile balance (with SMS authorization above KZT 13,000). Rural Broadband: Transtelecom will work with Freedom Connect to deploy fibre-optic lines to villages under the Accessible Internet program, targeting up to 90% coverage. Trade & Transit: Iran offered Kazakhstan access to Shahid Rajaee Port (with a land plot allocation process) and the option to operate at Chabahar, supporting North-South Corridor cargo flows. Logistics Boost: Emirates SkyCargo started a weekly Almaty–Dubai–Almaty cargo route (100+ tons weekly), strengthening Gulf connectivity. Economy Outlook: The IMF projects Kazakhstan growth around 4.6% in 2026, citing services and investment, while flagging inflation and oil-export risks. Regional Integration: Kazakhstan ranks third in SCO budget contributions (15.2%), underscoring its role in transit, digital, energy and logistics initiatives.

AI & Digital Infrastructure: Kazakhstan signed $10bn agreements with Firebird and Nvidia to build “Data Center Valley,” including high-performance computing and new data centers, with Prime Minister Bektenov calling it a platform for global digital infrastructure. Transport & Logistics: The government plans a unified digital transport database by end-2026, with a centralized “data lake” to manage the logistics chain in real time and boost railway service quality and transit volumes. Rail Transit Ambitions: Kazakhstan targets rail transit of 67m tons by 2030 (from 33m), aiming for 100m by 2040 and leaning on the Middle Corridor for China–Europe cargo. Space Policy: Tokayev chaired a Security Council meeting on space industry development, stressing satellite communications sustainability and support for space science as private firms expand roles globally. Urban Development & Utilities: Tokayev met Kanat Bozumbayev after China roadshows for Alatau City; officials also flagged record 2026 funding (over T1.1tn) for energy and utilities modernization. Regional Connectivity: Azerbaijan Airlines launched the Baku–Shymkent–Baku route, expected to lift tourism and business ties. Trade & Markets: Russia remained Kazakhstan’s top goods supplier with a 31.8% share in Jan–Apr, while China led Kazakhstan’s exports at 20.3%. Business & Finance: Arras Minerals upsized its bought-deal financing to $21.7m for exploration and development in Kazakhstan. Governance & Legal: Majilis deputy Murat Abenov commented on a lawsuit involving KazTAG’s editor-in-chief, urging mediation and compromise.

AI Infrastructure Deal: Kazakhstan signed $10bn agreements with Firebird and Nvidia to build “Data Center Valley,” including high-performance computing and new data centers, with Prime Minister Oljas Bektenov calling it a push for global-grade digital infrastructure. Transport Modernization: The government plans a unified digital transport database (“data lake”) by end-2026 to manage logistics in real time, alongside major railway upgrades and station modernization. Middle Corridor Momentum: Kyrgyz logistics firms say cargo flows via the Middle Corridor are rising, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan seen as key partners to boost transit efficiency and cooperation. Rail Transit Targets: Kazakhstan aims to lift rail transit traffic to 67m tons by 2030 (and 100m by 2040), expanding logistics terminals and rolling out “Smart Rail” digital optimization. Macroeconomic Outlook: The IMF forecasts Kazakhstan growth at about 4.6% in 2026, citing stable demand and reserves, while warning on import costs and global financial conditions. Trade Snapshot: Russia remains Kazakhstan’s top goods supplier with a 31.8% share in Jan–Apr, while China leads Kazakhstan’s exports at 20.3%. Energy & Exploration: Kazakhstan launched a new hydrocarbon licensing push with a 30-plot auction on July 29, and continues expanding exploration and production capacity. Regional Diplomacy: EU and Central Asian envoys met in Almaty to coordinate on Afghanistan’s security, trade and connectivity.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU floated a new Russia-focused sanctions package that could include entities tied to Kazakhstan, raising uncertainty for an EU–India trade deal that still needs unanimous approval. AI Infrastructure Push: Kazakhstan signed a $10bn AI cooperation framework with Nvidia-backed Firebird for “Data Center Valley” in Ekibastuz, with a first $5bn phase (125MW) targeting commercial operations in 2027. Middle Corridor Drive: Kazakhstan is stepping up Middle Corridor capacity, planning about $10bn in rail and infrastructure upgrades as China–Europe freight shifts toward more reliable land routes. Critical Materials Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Germany plan talks on critical raw materials and energy/industrial cooperation as German senior officials visit this month. Agribusiness Deal: Solico Group will build a large cheese plant in Almaty region (155,000 tons/year; about $70m), aiming for commissioning in 2029. Transport Safety: Road fatalities on Kazakhstan’s national highways fell 26.8% in the first five months of 2026. Corporate/Legal: Gazexport flagged shareholder concerns after a court decision tied to the Akkulkovskoye oil field license loss. Energy/Value Chain: Kazakhstan’s gold sector added five new deposits in 2025 and ranked 14th globally in gold production, per industry officials.

AI Infrastructure Deal: Kazakhstan signed a $10bn AI infrastructure package with Nvidia-backed Firebird, anchored by “Data Center Valley” in Ekibastuz: $5bn first phase (125MW, commercial ops targeted for 2027) and ambitions up to 300MW+ with as many as 100,000 Nvidia GPUs, aiming for about $3bn a year in export revenue. Energy & Food Processing: Iran’s Solico Group will build a large cheese plant in Almaty region (155,000 tons/year; ~35.2bn tenge, about $70m), with commissioning expected in 2029, as Kazakhstan pushes higher value-added dairy processing. Politics & Governance: Kazakhstan’s ruling Amanat party voted to merge into the new pro-presidential Adilet party, shifting the ruling network into a fresh political vehicle. Trade & Logistics: Belgian Sarens plans up to $56m for an 82-hectare logistics hub near the China border at Khorgos to ease transit bottlenecks and support the Asia-Europe corridor. Mining & Metals: Kazakhstan ranked 14th in global gold production in 2025, adding five new deposits to the state register; separate coverage also notes new gold exploration activity. Corporate/Legal: Gazexport says court proceedings led to the loss of the Akkulkovskoye oil field license, raising potential governance and disclosure questions for Tethys shareholders. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan will host senior visits from Germany, Spain and Poland this month, with talks spanning trade, investment, energy and critical raw materials.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st sanctions proposal targets 50 companies tied to Russia’s military-industrial complex, with listings that reportedly include entities in Kazakhstan and other countries; unanimous EU approval is required, with a July 15 target. AIFC & Hong Kong Capital Markets: Astana’s AIFC says it’s actively engaging HKEX and mining firms to explore dual listings in Hong Kong, aiming to deepen investor access and dispute-resolution cooperation. Aviation Liberalization: Kazakhstan is preparing to remove US FAA “remarks” to enable direct air communication with the United States, a move framed as boosting tourism, business ties, and investment. Energy & Nuclear Financing Uncertainty: Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant deal with Russia remains murky on funding details, even as Rosatom credit is said to cover “most” of the $16.4bn project. Water Efficiency Push: Kazakhstan is working with the US Bureau of Reclamation on digital water metering, telemetry, and reducing canal losses amid projected water shortfalls. Mining Exploration: Sarytogan Graphite begins a maiden diamond drilling program at its Ilkin copper prospect in central Kazakhstan after earlier trench results. Trade Expansion: Kazakhstan and Sweden discussed simplifying market access and boosting non-commodity exports, alongside industrial cooperation talks involving Hyundai Trans Almaty and Volvo. SCO 25 Years: Coverage marks the SCO’s shift from a security mechanism into a broader Eurasian cooperation platform that now also emphasizes economic and cultural ties.

EU-India Trade Risk: The EU’s proposed 21st sanctions package against Russia reportedly includes entities based in India and also lists firms tied to Kazakhstan, raising uncertainty for an EU-India trade deal that still needs unanimous approval across all 27 member states. Legal & Trade Disputes: The International Dispute Resolution Institute (IDI) and China’s Karamay Arbitration Commission (KAC) signed an MoU to resolve civil and commercial disputes via legally binding arbitration, with a focus on trade, investment, construction and energy. Energy & Industry: Ampo will supply 85 high-pressure valves for Karachaganak field upgrades in Kazakhstan, supporting gas reinjection and trunkline expansion. Investment Push: Atyrau is positioning itself as an investment powerhouse, reviewing major industrial projects and diversification plans to attract billions in FDI. China Partnership: Kazakhstan and China’s Jiangsu Province are deepening cooperation, including the opening of a Central Asia-Jiangsu Center in Astana to boost industrial localization, logistics and the digital economy. Trade with Sweden: Kazakhstan is working to expand non-commodity exports to Sweden, focusing on reducing technical barriers, improving logistics and streamlining customs, alongside industrial cooperation. Finance Tech: Kazakhstan’s financial regulators are exploring AI tools for supervision, including dashboards and stress-testing systems, in talks with Azerbaijan’s financial oversight body. Migration Signals: Astana saw most non-CIS arrivals in early 2026 from China and Mongolia, reflecting growing business and education links.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add firms linked to multiple countries, including Kazakhstan, and could complicate ratification of an EU–India trade deal ahead of a July 15 deadline. Trade & Industry Push: Kazakhstan is stepping up non-commodity exports to Sweden and the wider EU, with talks focused on cutting technical barriers, improving logistics and customs, and linking exporters via QazTrade and Swedish trade bodies. China Link in Astana: Astana opened the Jiangsu Center for Central Asia, aiming to attract Jiangsu investment into industry, agri-processing, petrochemicals and digital projects, as bilateral trade with China hit a record $49bn. Mining & Strategic Minerals: Saudi and Kazakh ministers discussed expanding industrial and mining cooperation, including strategic minerals and value-chain partnerships. Digital Economy: Alatau City signed an MOU with the Solana Foundation to build blockchain infrastructure, support startups and train talent as Kazakhstan targets a Web3 innovation role. Finance Tech: Kazakhstan’s financial regulator discussed using AI for supervision with Azerbaijan’s central bank, including stress-testing and data-to-indicators tools. Regional Governance: Kazakhstan’s political modernization drew attention in an EU Parliament roundtable, highlighting reforms tied to the new constitution. Energy Logistics: Operational control of the Baku–Supsa pipeline was transferred back to Azerbaijan and Georgia state structures, reinforcing non-Russian export routes. Business & Culture: OpenAI data says Kazakh and Azerbaijani are among the fastest-growing languages on ChatGPT, with Kazakhstan planning joint AI education initiatives.

EU Sanctions Watch: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add entities based in India and also lists firms tied to sectors like drones, energy and crypto—potentially complicating the EU-India trade deal that Brussels and New Delhi finalized in January; the package needs unanimous approval by all 27 member states, with a target date of July 15. Kazakhstan Digital Assets: Alatau City in Kazakhstan signed an MoU with the Solana Foundation in Hong Kong to build a blockchain innovation zone, covering digital infrastructure, startup support and workforce training. Financial Supervision AI: Azerbaijan’s central bank discussed with Kazakhstan’s financial regulator plans to use AI and advanced digital tools for financial oversight, including dashboards and stress-testing systems. Industrial & Mining Ties: Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan held talks in Astana on expanding industrial and mining cooperation, with a focus on strategic minerals and private-sector partnerships. Trade Expansion: Kazakhstan and Sweden discussed boosting trade turnover, cutting technical barriers and improving logistics/customs, including support for exporters via QazTrade and Business Sweden. Border & Mobility: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan moved to strengthen cross-border cooperation via a border-regime agreement and continued work on visa facilitation to ease travel and business contacts. Jobs & Investment Pipeline: Kazakhstan’s 2026–2029 plan targets wage gaps and aims to create up to 240,000 quality jobs annually, alongside major geological exploration investment of about $470m in 2026–2028.

EU Sanctions Shock: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add firms based in India and also list entities tied to Kazakhstan and other countries, potentially complicating ratification of an EU–India trade deal; approval is unanimous across 27 states. US–Central Asia Critical Minerals: A first in-person U.S. Critical Minerals Dialogue in Astana pushed cooperation with all five Central Asian states, as Washington seeks to reduce dependence on China-controlled supply chains. Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan Border Deal: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan state border regime agreement, setting rules for border maintenance, crossings, flights, and incident prevention. EU Visa Talks: Kazakhstan and the EU moved to a new stage on visa facilitation and readmission, aiming to ease mobility for people and business. Lake Balkhash Protection: Kazakhstan and France advanced joint efforts to safeguard Lake Balkhash, including water forecasting and digital tools for basin management. Jobs & Wages Plan: Kazakhstan’s 2026–2029 income plan targets a 39.2% wage gap reduction and up to 240,000 quality jobs annually. Mining Push: Kazakhstan plans $470mn in geological exploration (2026–2028) and highlighted titanium output and aerospace demand, with Kazakhstan’s titanium cited at 20% of the global aerospace market.

EU-India Sanctions Shock: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal includes unnamed entities in India and also flags firms linked to Kazakhstan among others, raising uncertainty for a major EU–India trade deal that needs unanimous approval by July 15. Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan Border: The Senate ratified the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan state border regime agreement, setting rules for border maintenance, crossings, flights, and incident prevention to deepen security and cooperation. EU Mobility Talks: Kazakhstan and the EU advanced visa facilitation and readmission talks, focusing on faster processing, multiple-entry visas, and lighter documentation to boost business and people-to-people ties. Lake Balkhash Protection: Kazakhstan and France are stepping up joint work to protect Lake Balkhash, with French experts reviewing water, glacier runoff, and digital tools for basin planning. Jobs & Wages Plan: Government plans for 2026–2029 target a 39.2% wage gap reduction via higher minimum and civil service pay, dual education, rural microloans, and price controls—aiming for up to 240,000 quality jobs annually. Mining Push: Kazakhstan will invest about $470mn in geological exploration in 2026–2028, while Kashagan’s gas processing expansion (2.5 bcm/year) moves into practical implementation. Titanium Advantage: Ust-Kamenogorsk’s titanium output is set to grow, with Kazakhstan’s titanium claimed at 20% of the global aerospace market. Anti-Corruption Overhaul: New measures expand criminal liability for bribery, tighten conflict-of-interest rules, and broaden restrictions across the quasi-public sector and state-funded projects. Transport & Coal Snapshot: Transport activity rose in early 2026, while coal exports hit 7.1mn tons in Q1, with domestic supply still prioritized. Tourism & Digital: Kazakhstan’s tourism sector continues to grow, and the Digital Qazaqstan strategy is set to accelerate AI integration nationwide through 2029.